As the presidential election looms, the Federal Reserve finds itself grappling to uphold its traditional separation from politics. Despite its fiercely guarded independence, the institution is increasingly drawn into the partisan fray, challenging its ability to set policy free from political influence.
Historical Precedence of Fed’s Non-Partisanship
Historically, the Federal Reserve operates independently of the White House, setting policies that are immune to presidential pressures for lower interest rates. Congress oversees the Fed but also lacks the power to directly influence rate decisions. This separation from politics is intentional to avoid potential economic instability.
Politicians, particularly incumbents, often advocate for low interest rates to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper. However, the Federal Reserve uses higher interest rates to control inflation, ensuring price increases remain manageable. If political entities could enforce low rates consistently, this could potentially trigger uncontrolled price hikes.
The Changing Dynamics Under Trump’s Administration
The norm of presidential silence on central bank policy was disrupted under the Trump administration. President Trump openly criticized the Federal Reserve, labeling officials as “boneheads” and even implying that Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell was an “enemy” of America for maintaining high rates. As the presumptive Republican nominee, Trump has continued to politicize the Fed, insinuating that any pre-November interest rate cuts would be a strategy to aid President Biden’s re-election bid.
Threats to the Independence of Federal Reserve
Some of Trump’s allies have proposed that the Fed’s regulatory functions should be subject to White House review. There has also been talk of bringing all “independent agencies” under White House control. While the prospect of direct White House influence on the Federal Reserve’s policies seems improbable, it raises concerns over the erosion of the institution’s independence in more subtle ways.
Implications for the Federal Reserve’s Future Decisions
Harvard economics professor Gabriel Chodorow-Reich points out that such changes could make it more difficult for the Fed to make tough decisions like raising rates to slow the economy. The looming election also raises questions on whether the Fed would feel comfortable cutting interest rates in the near term, as such moves could draw even more attention to the central bank’s political entanglements.
Fed’s Response Amid Political Pressure
Despite the potential political backlash, some economists believe that the Fed will continue to make decisions based on the economy’s needs. Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chair and current Brookings Institution member, suggests that the Fed would not shy away from rate cuts if warranted by economic data, regardless of the election timeline.
As the election year continues to unfold, the Federal Reserve’s struggle to maintain its political neutrality will likely remain under the spotlight. The institution’s ability to navigate these unprecedented challenges will have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy and beyond.
